"There's a lot of snow on the ground, which represents an awful lot of water," said Ryan Ness, chief flood duty officer for Toronto and Region Conservation, which monitors most of Pickering and Ajax.

Cold nights mean that, for now, the snow and ice are melting slowly, reducing the risk of flood.

"What we are monitoring now is the development of ice jams, which occur when the ice breaks up as it begins to melt," Mr. Ness said.

The ice can cause water to back up around culverts and bridges, flooding river banks. Several areas along Duffins Creek, at Riverside Drive, Church Street, Bayly Street and Brock Road are susceptible to ice jams.

Mr. Ness does not rule out flooding altogether this year.

"It's entirely dependent on how quickly spring comes and how quickly it warms up and whether we get rain with the warming."

As usual in the spring, the public should treat rivers and streams with caution, giving them a wide berth, he said.

"The banks of rivers and streams are a dangerous place to be; they're slippery and can give way as the river thaws out," said Mr. Ness, adding that people and pets should stay off the ice.

The TRCA's website includes a flood forecasting and warning centre with a colour-coded indicator of current conditions. As of Thursday morning, it was set at normal (green). It's available at trca.on.ca.

In the north, the Lake Simcoe Region Conservation Authority (LSRCA) is watching the winter melt carefully. Lake Simcoe's water level is higher than normal. In late February, it was at a 40-year high of 218.98 metres above sea level. The water dropped somewhat in early March, but this week rose again, sitting at 218.95 metres above sea level on March 10.

Lake Simcoe absorbs runoff from several rivers and streams.

"The concern is the spring runoff will happen and the volume of the lake will not be there," said Tom Hogenbirk, manager of engineering technical services (flood control) for the LSRCA.

That could mean flooding in low-lying areas, particularly in York Region. In Durham, the Beaverton harbour is prone to ice jams and Gamebridge in north Brock Township is generally susceptible to flooding, as it sits on a major river system along the Talbot River.

Mr. Hogenbirk said its important that people are aware of their surroundings and if they see ice jams start to form, they should contact their municipality. For the upcoming week, the LSRCA expects cold weather will keep the flood potential low.

At last week's council meeting, Brock Township Mayor Larry O'Connor explained the issue to council.

"We may be in a situation where we need help and I just wanted to let council know the situation is of concern," he said.

Regional Chairman Roger Anderson said if anything were to happen, the Region would be there for the northern communities.

"We'd have to send staff up there to do as much as we can to alleviate the problem," Mr. Anderson said.

Information on Lake Simcoe water levels and the potential for flood is available at www.lsrca.on.ca.