Sep 12, 2008 - 04:17 PM

By Reka Szekely

DURHAM -- Region officials predict the number of Ontario Works cases in Durham will continue to rise as a slumping manufacturing sector causes a ripple effect.

"Over the past three years, it's gone up somewhere in the neighbourhood of 27 per cent and we're anticipating it's going to increase over the next year," said Paul Cloutier, director of income support for Durham Region.

In January 2005, the Region's social assistance caseload was 5,757. The figure includes Ontario Disability Support Payments as well as Ontario Works and it grew to 7,904 cases by July 2008, a 37-per-cent increase.

Between July of 2007 and July of 2008, the Region's caseload grew by 706, which is an almost 10-per-cent jump.

Part of the problem, said Mr. Cloutier, is that only about a quarter of Ontarians qualify for Employment Insurance (EI) benefits when they lose their jobs.

"When the last recession was here in the early 90s, that was closer to 70-to-75 per cent, so there's been a huge change to how employment insurance is structured," he said.

While GM workers may be covered by EI when they're laid off, as local residents tighten their belts, other sectors suffer and there's a ripple effect in job losses.

"We start seeing things like cleaning services, the hospitality sector, bars, restaurants, the retail sector, the handyman, the lawn service, all of that becomes the first spending they choose to stop," said Mr. Cloutier.

And, those are some of the sectors where employees may not have enough hours to qualify for EI due to the part-time and contract nature of the work. When that happens, people look directly to Ontario Works.

"The concern is there's a significant number of people who may be in employment difficulty who are coming directly to the Region for assistance. In the past, there was an intermediate step and now there may not be for a lot of people," said Mr. Cloutier.

As it stands, the number of hours a person has to work in a one-year period preceding their unemployment varies from 420 to 700 hours, depending on the regional unemployment rate. Currently, in both the Oshawa and Toronto area, a worker would need 665 hours to qualify. In Newfoundland and Labrador, excluding St. John's, a worker would need 420 hours.

There are differences within Ontario as well. In Windsor a worker would need 560 hours, whereas in Ottawa, the same worker would need 700 hours.

While EI premiums are paid for by all workers, even those who may not end up qualifying for benefits, and employers, a fifth of social assistance payments come from municipal property taxpayers.

This year, the Region is budgeting $57 million for OW payments to Durham residents, $11.4 million of which will come from property taxpayers, with the rest coming from the Province. That's higher than last year's $52.5 million.

Among those that do qualify for EI, the number of people receiving benefits jumped by 32 per cent in June over the same time last year in the Oshawa census metropolitan area, which includes Whitby and Clarington. It's the highest jump in Canada.

And, along with an increasing demand for income support, Mr. Cloutier expects more demand for job search help, retraining, subsidized daycare and affordable housing.

All this means that the struggling auto sector will continue to have a ripple effect in Durham.

"GM is such an important part of the local fabric, any change there really has an impact on the fabric of the community at large," said Mr. Cloutier.